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Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $83,324 and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.7% as President Trump declined to rule out further military strikes on Iran before the November midterms. Oil futures rose nearly 1%, and this week’s U.S. inflation, manufacturing and jobs data could add to volatility.
Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures declined at the start of the week after U.S. President Donald Trump declined to rule out further military strikes on Iran, keeping investors on edge ahead of midterm elections in early November. At 03:30 UTC, bitcoin traded down 1.3% at $83,324, while futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq index were 0.7% lower, according to CoinDesk. The move underscores how the ongoing conflict with Iran, which began in early March 2026, continues to weigh on risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Major alternative cryptocurrencies fell in step with bitcoin, with ether, XRP and solana nursing similar losses of roughly 1.3%, CoinDesk reported. The softness in digital assets mirrored weakness in U.S. equity futures, with Nasdaq contracts trading 0.7% lower ahead of the Wall Street open.
Energy markets moved in the opposite direction. Futures linked to WTI crude oil rose nearly 1% to $93.28, alongside similar gains in Brent, as traders priced the possibility of renewed strikes disrupting supply from the region.
The catalyst was Trump’s comments on Sunday. Asked whether military action against Iran could resume, he said: “I don’t want to say that. I don’t want to say that. I mean, it’s possible, but I just don’t want to say that,” according to Fox News. He said he expected the war to end “very soon” and that the U.S. would prevail through both military and economic pressure. At the United Nations General Assembly, Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a major oil chokepoint disrupted by the war — for a seven-day period with a pause in fighting, followed by broader negotiations. Trump rejected the proposal, saying Iran was seeking a deal because it was under heavy pressure, and wrote on Truth Social that Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country was “fully prepared” for a renewed conflict, warning it could withstand even a potential “doomsday war.”
Why Markets Are Watching Every Iran Signal
The standoff matters for investors because geopolitical uncertainty around the war has stoked inflation fears since early March, when the conflict began. Those fears have lifted Treasury yields: the 10-year yield has risen 127 basis points to 5.20%, its highest level since 2007, driven by inflation concerns, bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes and debt worries, according to CoinDesk.
Higher yields and oil prices pressure both equities and risk assets like bitcoin, which had been a standout performer. Despite falling early in the year, bitcoin rallied 42% over the past three months, outperforming every major asset class including the Nasdaq and gold, CoinDesk reported. A reversal of that rally on geopolitical escalation would mark a notable shift in sentiment for crypto markets, which had largely shrugged off the war in the third quarter.
This week adds another layer of risk: U.S. PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls data are all due, and could shape Fed rate-hike expectations and broader market direction. This article reports on market moves and analyst commentary; it is not financial advice, and crypto prices are volatile with risk of loss.
The March War and Bitcoin’s Rebound
The U.S.-Iran war began in early March 2026, according to CoinDesk, and has since disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. The conflict has been a persistent source of market volatility, pushing oil higher and feeding into inflation expectations that have kept Treasury yields elevated.
Bitcoin’s path this year has been turbulent. It fell early in 2026 as the war began, but staged a strong recovery in the third quarter, gaining 42% in three months even as geopolitical risks lingered. That resilience had led some investors to treat bitcoin as a hedge in the current environment, though its decline on the latest Trump comments shows it remains sensitive to escalation risk.
The timing adds political weight to the military decisions: Trump’s refusal to rule out further strikes comes ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in early November, with CoinDesk noting he signaled possible new action before voters go to the polls.
“For investors, the 83,800-84,000 zone is an important near-term support. The 85,000-85,800 area is the immediate resistance zone. It would be prudent to avoid chasing the rally at current levels.”
— Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus exchange
Open Questions on Escalation and Prices
Whether the U.S. will launch further strikes on Iran is unknown — Trump said only that it was “possible,” while also predicting the war would end “very soon,” two signals that point in different directions. It is not clear whether Iran’s proposal for a seven-day Strait of Hormuz reopening and ceasefire has any path forward after Trump’s rejection.
On the market side, the price moves reported were from early Asian trading at 03:30 UTC and may have shifted since. How bitcoin and equities react through the week will depend heavily on the incoming PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls releases, and whether those readings reinforce or ease Fed rate-hike bets.
Data Releases and the Midterm Clock
Investors will watch this week’s U.S. economic data — PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls — for cues on Federal Reserve policy and the next move in cryptocurrencies, according to CoinDesk. Subburaj said ETF flows, Treasury yields and inflation prints will be the key variables for bitcoin in the near term.
On the geopolitical track, attention turns to whether the U.S. takes further military action against Iran before the early-November midterm elections, and whether diplomatic channels revive Iran’s UN proposal despite Trump’s rejection. Any renewed disruption to the Strait of Hormuz would likely feed through oil prices and inflation expectations.
Key Questions
Why did bitcoin and Nasdaq futures fall?
Both declined after President Trump declined to rule out further U.S. military strikes on Iran, saying such action was “possible” but that he did not want to confirm either way. Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $83,324 and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.7%, according to CoinDesk.
What did Trump say about the war with Iran?
Speaking Sunday, Trump said he expected the war to end “very soon” and that the U.S. would win through military and economic pressure. He rejected Iran’s UN proposal for a seven-day pause and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, saying Iran wanted a deal because it was under heavy pressure.
How has bitcoin performed during the war?
Bitcoin fell early in 2026 when the war began in March, but rebounded strongly in the third quarter, gaining 42% over three months and outperforming every major asset including the Nasdaq and gold, according to CoinDesk.
What data could move markets this week?
U.S. PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls reports are due this week. Analysts say these could influence Federal Reserve rate-hike bets and broader market direction, including cryptocurrencies.
Where are bitcoin’s key support and resistance levels?
According to Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj, the 83,800-84,000 zone is important near-term support and 85,000-85,800 is immediate resistance. He advised avoiding chasing the rally, keeping leverage limited and using staggered entries. This is analyst commentary, not financial advice.
Source: rss
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