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The U.S. Dollar Index has climbed about 2.6% since Sept. 9, while bitcoin has pulled back from its Sept. 21 high. CoinDesk’s analysis finds a recent inverse relationship, but says the dollar accounts for only about 17% of the variation in bitcoin’s daily returns over the measured period.
The U.S. Dollar Index has risen about 2.6% since Sept. 9, reaching a two-month high, while bitcoin has retreated from its Sept. 21 peak. But a CoinDesk analysis of TradingView data says the dollar’s relationship with bitcoin is too modest to explain most of BTC’s daily price variation, tempering the view that a stronger dollar is necessarily a major threat to the cryptocurrency.
The Dollar Index, or DXY, measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies that includes the euro and yen. It reached 101.69 on Tuesday, its highest level in two months, according to CoinDesk. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has pulled back to roughly $83,000 to $84,000 from nearly $87,500 after its rally stalled following Sept. 21.
Over the latest 90 trading days, daily bitcoin and DXY moves had a correlation of -0.41, CoinDesk reported, citing TradingView data it analyzed. A negative correlation means the assets tended to move in opposite directions. CoinDesk said that reading was the most negative since February 2023, but its corresponding R-squared was 0.17: DXY accounted for about 17% of the variation in BTC’s daily returns over that period.
The shorter-term comparison is less stable. The 30-day correlation was -0.45, but CoinDesk said two sessions—Aug. 19 and Sept. 3, when bitcoin rose more than 5% as DXY fell—strongly influenced the figure. Excluding those sessions, the reading drops to -0.19. Over a longer span, the 90-day correlation has averaged -0.14 since January 2020 and has at times turned positive.
A Dollar Signal With Limits
A rising dollar can tighten conditions for borrowers with dollar-denominated debt by increasing their repayment burden. Those borrowers may reduce exposure to riskier assets, a channel that can weigh on bitcoin and other investments priced in dollars. The recent pullback in BTC is consistent with the possibility that a firmer dollar is capping some upside, CoinDesk said, but the correlation figures do not establish that the dollar caused the decline.
For investors watching bitcoin’s role in a portfolio, the figures suggest that DXY is one influence among many. CoinDesk said bitcoin’s loose historical relationship with the dollar, alongside its limited correlation with U.S. Treasury yields discussed in a recent report, supports the case for viewing it as a potential diversifier. That is an interpretation of historical co-movement, not a guarantee that bitcoin will remain independent of traditional markets or avoid losses.
Recent Moves and Longer History
The conventional argument is that a stronger dollar pressures dollar-denominated assets such as bitcoin and gold. CoinDesk’s report places the current market movement against that expectation: DXY has advanced since Sept. 9, and bitcoin has retreated from a high near $87,500 on Sept. 21. The report describes the dollar as a possible headwind, while noting that bitcoin’s decline so far has been limited.
The recent inverse correlation is stronger than the longer-run average reported by CoinDesk. Since January 2020, the 90-day reading has averaged -0.14 and at times moved into positive territory, reaching +0.22 in November 2024. Those historical changes show why a correlation observed over one window cannot, on its own, establish a durable relationship or explain a particular price move.
How Durable Is the Link?
The data do not establish whether the dollar rally caused bitcoin’s pullback or whether the two moved in opposite directions for other reasons. The 30-day reading depends heavily on two sessions, and the longer-term figures show that the correlation has varied, including periods when it was positive. It is also unclear whether the current inverse relationship will persist as market conditions change.
CoinDesk’s analysis measures historical co-movement; it does not identify all the forces behind BTC’s daily returns. The reported 17% figure leaves most of that variation outside the share attributed to DXY in the analysis, and it should not be read as a forecast of bitcoin’s future performance.
The Dollar’s Next Resistance
CoinDesk’s market signal report said DXY was trading above the Ichimoku cloud, a momentum indicator, while still below immediate resistance at 101.80, the high reached June 24. The report said a move above that level could mark a bullish resolution to the index’s choppy sideways trading since May 2025. Traders will also be able to compare subsequent bitcoin moves with the dollar, while keeping in mind that correlation can shift across time windows.
The next steps are not certain: the source does not state when DXY might test resistance or whether it will break through. Bitcoin remains volatile and can lose value; the data do not provide a reliable basis for predicting its price.
Key Questions
How much has the dollar risen?
CoinDesk reported that DXY gained about 2.6% since Sept. 9 and reached 101.69 on Tuesday, a two-month high.
What does bitcoin’s -0.41 correlation with DXY mean?
It means their daily moves tended to go in opposite directions over the 90 trading days covered. It does not show that the dollar caused bitcoin’s moves.
Does the dollar explain most bitcoin price changes?
No. CoinDesk’s analysis gives an R-squared of 0.17 for the period, meaning DXY accounted for about 17% of the variation in BTC’s daily returns in that comparison.
Is the inverse relationship a long-term pattern?
Not consistently. CoinDesk said the 90-day correlation has averaged -0.14 since January 2020 and has sometimes turned positive, including a peak of +0.22 in November 2024.
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